Egye 231 1s1819 First Exam

Upload an electronic copy of your answers for this item. A startup company of 25 employees is planning their two-day team building activity in Baguio City (which includes a one-day tour around the city). Hotel reservations amounting to P 20,000 was paid and is non-refundable. Van rental (driver and van) amounting to P 10,000 has also been reserved but not paid yet. However, the day before the departure, a typhoon hit the northern part of Luzon. Baguio City and nearby provinces were announced to be under typhoon signal number 2 while Metro Manila experienced fair weather. If the group will push through, toll fees and gasoline costs will be P 3,500 while food is estimated at P 1,800/person. If the group stays, the team-building activity will still be held but only for a day in the office conference hall and will cost the company about PhP600/person for food. Considering safety, cost and employee satisfaction taking the company owner’s perspective, construct the Decision Tree and Influence Diagram.

The executives of the General Products Company (GPC) have to decide which of three products to introduce, A, B, or C.  Product C is essentially a risk-free proposition, from which the company will obtain a net profit of $ 1 M. Product B is considerably more risky. Sales may be high, with resulting net profit of $ 8 M, medium with net profit of $ 4M, or low, in which case the company just breaks even. The probabilities for high, medium, and low sales for B are 0.38, 0.12, and 0.5, respectively. Product A poses something of a difficulty; a problem with the production system has not yet been solved. The engineering division has indicated its confidence in solving the problem, but there is a slight (5%) chance that devising a workable solution may take a long time. In this event, there will be a delay in introducing the product, and that delay will result in lower sales and profits. Another issue is the price for Product A. The options are to introduce it at either high or low price; the price would not be set until just before the product is to be introduced. Both of these issues have an impact on the ultimate net profit. Finally, once the product is introduced, sales can be either high or low. If the company decides to set a low price, then low sales are just as likely as high sales. If the company sets a high price, the likelihood of low sales depends on whether the product was delayed by the production problem. If there was no delay and the company sets a high price, the probability is 0.4 that sales will be high. However, if there is a delay and the price is set high, the probability is only 0.3 that sales will be high. The following table shows the possible net profit figures (in M) for product A: Price High Sales ($ M) Low Sales ($ M) Time Delay High 5 (0.5) Low 3.5 1 No Delay High 8 0 Low 4.5 1.5 Upload a document containing your solution to the following items:

1. Draw an influence diagram for GPC’s problem. Specify the possible outcomes and the probability distribution for each chance node. Specify the possible alternatives for each decision node. Write out the complete table for the consequence node.
2. Draw a complete decision tree for GPC. Solve the decision tree. What should GPC do?

Solar PV systems are touted as an important component of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector. This is primarily because it eliminates the combustion of fossil fuels in the production of electric energy. Identify at least two potential externalities of solar PV systems and propose how these externalities may be quantified.

Vanek et al. (2008) discuss three goals of energy systems. One of which is equity. Which of the following is a relevant statement on equity?

• A.

  Growing world population and increased resource and energy consumption adversely affect the natural environment in a number of ways, which is needed to be addressed by the community of nations

• B.

  No preference is given on race, economic situation, religious and political beliefs, for countries to pursue the right to improve the well-being of their citizens

• C.

  Equal weight is given to the right of current and future generations to meet their basic needs.

• D.

  All of the above

• E.

  None of the above

In addition to equity, another goal of energy systems is intertemporarility. Which of the following is a relevant statement on intertemporality?

• A.

  Growing world population and increased resource and energy consumption adversely affect the natural environment in a number of ways, which is needed to be addressed by the community of nations

• B.

  No preference is given on race, economic situation, religious and political beliefs, for countries to pursue the right to improve the well-being of their citizens.

• C.

  Equal weight is given to the right of current and future generations to meet their basic needs.

• D.

  All of the above

• E.

  None of the above

Vanek et al. (2008) discussed four categories of solutions that can enable the achievement of physical, financial and environmental objectives for energy systems. Which of the following describes Conserving through personal choice ?

• A.

  The primary source of energy remains the same but a new technology is used to improve efficiency of the system

• B.

  The same primary source of energy is used but the conversion technology is replaced with a more efficient one to conserve energy

• C.

  Choosing to use an existing technology in a different way to achieve objectives

• D.

  Total amount of end-use energy consumption is not changed but change is made at the energy source

Vanek et al. (2008) discussed four categories of solutions that can enable the achievement of physical, financial and environmental objectives for energy systems. Which of the following describes Conserving by replacing end-use technology ?

• A.

  The primary source of energy remains the same but a new technology is used to improve efficiency of the system

• B.

  The same primary source of energy is used but the conversion technology is replaced with a more efficient one to conserve energy

• C.

  Choosing to use an existing technology in a different way to achieve objectives

• D.

  Total amount of end-use energy consumption is not changed but change is made at the energy source

Vanek et al. (2008) discussed four categories of solutions that can enable the achievement of physical, financial and environmental objectives for energy systems. Which describes Conserving by replacing energy conversion technology?

• A.

  The primary source of energy remains the same but a new technology is used to improve efficiency of the system

• B.

  The same primary source of energy is used but the conversion technology is replaced with a more efficient one to conserve energy

• C.

  Choosing to use an existing technology in a different way to achieve objectives

• D.

  Total amount of end-use energy consumption is not changed but change is made at the energy source

Vanek et al. (2008) discussed four categories of solutions that can enable the achievement of physical, financial and environmental objectives for energy systems. Which of the followign describes Replacing existing energy sources with alternatives?

• A.

  The primary source of energy remains the same but a new technology is used to improve efficiency of the system

• B.

  The same primary source of energy is used but the conversion technology is replaced with a more efficient one to conserve energy

• C.

  Choosing to use an existing technology in a different way to achieve objectives

• D.

  Total amount of end-use energy consumption is not changed but change is made at the energy source

(True or False) A startup company of 25 employees is planning their two-day team building activity in Baguio City (which includes a one-day tour around the city). Hotel reservations amounting to P 20,000 was paid and is non-refundable. Van rental (driver and van) amounting to P 10,000 has also been reserved but not paid yet. However, the day before the departure, a typhoon hit the northern part of Luzon. Baguio City and nearby provinces were announced to be under typhoon signal number 2 while Metro Manila experienced fair weather. If the group will push through, toll fees and gasoline costs will be P 3,500 while food is estimated at P 1,800/person. If the group stays, the team-building activity will still be held but only for a day in the office conference hall and will cost the company about PhP600/person for food. The BEST option result in a cost of P 35, 000.

• A.

  TRUE

• B.

  FALSE

• C.

  Option 3

• D.

  Option 4

(TRUE OR FALSE) A startup company of 25 employees is planning their two-day team building activity in Baguio City (which includes a one-day tour around the city). Hotel reservations amounting to P 20,000 was paid and is non-refundable. Van rental (driver and van) amounting to P 10,000 has also been reserved but not paid yet. However, the day before the departure, a typhoon hit the northern part of Luzon. Baguio City and nearby provinces were announced to be under typhoon signal number 2 while Metro Manila experienced fair weather. If the group will push through, toll fees and gasoline costs will be P 3,500 while food is estimated at P 1,800/person. If the group stays, the team-building activity will still be held but only for a day in the office conference hall and will cost the company about PhP600/person for food. The BEST option cannot be determined based on cost.

• A.

  TRUE

• B.

  FALSE