Thinking MCQ

Envy also lead to defection to prevent others from doing better than them

To maximise their utility they should accept anything, but most people do offer 40-50% and offers below 20% are often rejected

When suggested that a 50:50 split should occur, 76% of P's agreed to it. Those that knew the player they were with had previously not behaved altruistically were more likely to pocket the money as a form of altruistic punishment

Pascal's wager suggests that we should believe in God because it offers the highest expected utility if true. In other words, by believing in God, we have the potential to gain infinite happiness (eternal salvation) if God exists, while the potential loss (living a secular life) is finite. Therefore, the expected utility of believing in God is higher than not believing, as the potential reward outweighs the potential loss.

The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut where people make judgments based on the ease with which examples come to mind. It is not influenced by the underlying probabilities because it relies on the ease of recalling relevant information rather than the actual likelihood of an event occurring. This means that even if an event has a low probability, if it is easily recalled or available in one's memory, it may be perceived as more likely.

Its automatic, visceral and associative

The question asks for a type of theory that is not one of the three types used to describe decision making. The three types mentioned are descriptive, prescriptive, and normative. The correct answer, informative, does not fit into any of these categories. Therefore, informative is not one of the types of theory used to describe decision making.

Rational choice is to always pick the blue light but people insist on PROBABILITY MATCHING and still guess the yellow light 30% of the time

A rational decision is one that takes into account all available information and options, weighs the potential outcomes and consequences, and aims to maximize utility or benefit. It considers subjective factors such as personal preferences, values, and beliefs, as well as objective factors such as facts and evidence. Additionally, rational decisions can be normative, meaning they are based on societal norms, standards, or expectations. Therefore, the correct answer is that a rational decision encompasses all of these aspects.

Tit for Tat is a successful strategy because it is transparent, provable, and forgiving. However, being suspicious and leading with defection is not a key feature of Tit for Tat. This strategy is based on the principle of reciprocating the opponent's previous move, starting with cooperation. Hence, the answer is "Suspicious - Will lead with defection".

Rational Choice theory encompasses all the options mentioned in the question. It is a social science theory that applies mathematical principles to explain social and economic phenomena. It can be considered a form of social physics as it aims to understand and predict human behavior in a systematic manner. Additionally, Rational Choice theory has been around for approximately 50 years in its modern form. Therefore, all of the options are correct explanations for Rational Choice theory.

A fallacy of temporal decision making

Normative reasoning refers to the idea that people should always follow the highest utility. However, this statement is incorrect. Expected utility theory does not prescribe that individuals should always choose the option with the highest utility. Instead, it suggests that individuals should choose the option that maximizes their expected utility, taking into account both the probabilities of different outcomes and the utilities associated with those outcomes. In other words, individuals should consider the trade-off between the likelihood of different outcomes and the value they assign to those outcomes when making decisions.

Cooperate first move and then matches opponents last move each time.

This is a short term fix and not a change in attitude just a momentary change in behaviour and still very self serving

Option A has the highest utility because it has a higher probability of occurring (50% compared to 2%) and the amount of money involved is the same (£100). Therefore, the expected value of option A is higher, making it the more desirable choice.

A good example of a REAL essence over a NOMINAL essence is when we say "Water is composed of H2O." This statement refers to the fundamental and essential nature of water, as it defines its molecular composition. It goes beyond just a superficial or nominal description of water, such as being colorless, a liquid, or universal. The composition of H2O is a real essence that is necessary for water to exist as water.

Young children do not have the same concept of essences and hence are happy to call a painted horse a zebra

We have to integrate existing assets into decisions, something people often fail to do

This showed the effect to be additive with grammatically similar stimuli had the highest identification

The correct answer is message framing. Message framing refers to how information is presented or framed, which can influence people's decision-making and risk preferences. In the Asian disease problem, Kahneman and Tversky found that when the problem was framed in terms of lives saved, people tended to be risk averse and chose the safer option. However, when the problem was framed in terms of lives lost, people tended to be risk-seeking and chose the riskier option. This demonstrates how the framing of information can significantly impact people's risk preferences and decision-making.

Both probability matching and melioration have been shown to disappear under appropriately structured learning environments. This means that when the learning environment is designed in a certain way, individuals tend to stop engaging in these behaviors. Probability matching refers to the tendency to match responses to the probability of reinforcement, while melioration refers to the tendency to allocate behavior in proportion to the rate of reinforcement obtained from different options. Under appropriate learning conditions, individuals are likely to adopt more optimal decision-making strategies and abandon these less efficient behaviors.

This is indicative of the personal version taking longer to override the heuristic response not to take a life

The prototype model over and under predicted correct classifications

system 1 vs system 2 activation

Someone who savours delayed gratification in the knowledge the reward will be greater is said to have a low discount rate (k). This means that they place a lower value on immediate rewards and are willing to wait for a larger reward in the future. They have the ability to delay instant gratification and prioritize long-term benefits, indicating a lower discount rate.

Both of these explanations are appropriate because they provide valid reasons for why people persist even when the current investment is operating at a loss. The first explanation suggests that people may view the investment as a loss and want to avoid further losses or try to recoup their initial investment, which aligns with Prospect Theory. The second explanation proposes that people may persist due to a simple heuristic of avoiding waste, as they may feel that abandoning the investment would result in wasted resources. Both of these explanations offer plausible motivations for why people would continue despite the sunk costs.

However this is not the rational choice in a single instance since we should defect

People prefer £500 now rather than £1000 in ten years because of a combination of factors. Firstly, hyperbolic discount rates play a role, meaning that people tend to value immediate rewards more than future rewards. Secondly, there is uncertainty about the future, and people may not be confident that they will actually receive the £1000 in ten years. Lastly, temporal proximity causes a disproportional increase in the attractiveness of the £500 option, as it is a more immediate and tangible reward compared to waiting for ten years.

Reber (1967) demonstrated the first ideas of intrinsic rule learning that could be applied to categorization by using an artificial grammar as the stimulus. This means that he created a set of rules and patterns that were not based on any natural language or real-world examples, but rather designed specifically for the experiment. By using an artificial grammar, Reber was able to study how participants learn and categorize based on these artificial rules, providing insights into the cognitive processes involved in rule learning and categorization.

Expected Utility Theory is a normative theory because it focuses on how rational individuals should make decisions under conditions of uncertainty. It provides a framework for evaluating and comparing different courses of action based on their expected outcomes and the individual's preferences. Normative theories prescribe what individuals ought to do, rather than describing what they actually do or predicting their behavior. Therefore, Expected Utility Theory falls under the category of normative theories.

The correct answer is 2% - base rate neglect. Base rate neglect refers to the tendency to ignore the prevalence or base rate of a condition when making judgments or calculations. In this case, many people incorrectly assume that the chance of having the disease is equal to the false positive rate, which is 5%. However, the correct calculation takes into account both the false positive rate and the prevalence of the disease. Since the prevalence is 1/1000, the chance of a person who has a positive result actually having the disease is much lower, specifically 2%.

They all showed initial improvement but simple rule training saw people revert back to base rate neglect after a while

T + K - believe it is heuristics but Cosmides and Tooby believe it is the formulation of the problem

They take into account a guaranteed gain when it should be discounted from the equation, meaning P's do not choose the highest expected utility

Anchoring and adjustment is the correct answer because it refers to the cognitive bias where an initial piece of information (the anchor) influences subsequent judgments or estimates. In this case, the value of the random number generator serves as the anchor and affects the later estimate made about another question. The individual may adjust their estimate based on the initial anchor, leading to biased judgments.

This is the Law of small numbers - assuming probabilities balance out in small populations when in fact the larger the population the closer it will be to the average of the population
This also leads to the gambers fallacy - in which people blame a run of unsuccessful outcomes on bad luck not accepting everything is independent

This is the Conjunction fallacy and occurs because specific events seem more likely than general ones - hence the representativeness heuristic

The correct answer is Fast and frugal heuristics. This is because fast and frugal heuristics refer to the idea that decision-making processes are not necessarily rational or optimal, but rather have evolved to be quick and efficient in specific situations. This perspective suggests that humans use simple rules of thumb or heuristics to make decisions, rather than engaging in complex optimization or unbounded rationality.

Stanovich and West found that overriding initial system 1 responses requires greater supervision from system 2, which is the reflective and analytical part of our thinking. This ability to override impulsive and automatic responses is associated with higher levels of intelligence. Therefore, the correct answer is Intelligence.

The frequencies are simpler than Bayesian computations because they involve counting the number of occurrences of an event, while Bayesian reasoning requires calculating probabilities based on prior knowledge and updating them with new information. This simplicity makes it easier for individuals to understand and reason about frequencies, leading to normative reasoning.

Regret theory = compare alternative outcomes after decision to rejoice or regret dependent on the other outcomes

A form of Essentialism - looking for the essences in objects

A hard and easy version were introduced providing the frequencies to assist system 2 processing

In regret theory, our subjective estimates of utility are contaminated by anticipated emotional states. This means that our expectations of how we will feel about the outcomes of our choices can influence our perception of the value or desirability of those outcomes. These anticipated emotions can bend or distort the value function, leading us to make decisions based on avoiding regret or seeking certain emotional states rather than purely rational considerations.

Gated communities are not a counter strategy that has evolved to counter free riders. Gated communities are residential areas that are enclosed by walls or fences, typically with restricted access. While they may provide a sense of security and exclusivity for the residents, they do not directly address the issue of free riders within a cooperating group. Counter strategies such as kin altruism, information exchange to limit free riders, and dowry payments are more relevant in addressing the problem of free riders within a group.

Attribute substitution refers to a cognitive process where individuals simplify complex decision-making tasks by substituting them with easier or more familiar ones. In this situation, instead of directly addressing a difficult question, individuals tend to rely on a heuristic or easier question that is related to the original task. This substitution allows individuals to make quicker decisions, but it may also lead to biases and errors in judgment.

The Monty Hall problem is not a violation of the normative theory - Expected Utility theory. The Monty Hall problem is a probability puzzle that demonstrates the concept of conditional probability and the benefits of switching choices. It does not directly contradict the principles of Expected Utility theory, which focuses on decision-making under uncertainty based on expected values and utility maximization.

These treatments all worked to increase the % switch but never to 100%, the final group was the Compare group where they could see data from a number of participants

Nominal essences refer to the defining features of natural kinds. These essences are the characteristics or qualities that are considered essential to the identity or nature of a particular kind of thing. They help to distinguish one natural kind from another and are used to classify and categorize objects or entities. Therefore, nominal essences are the correct answer in this context.